quinta-feira, 24 de setembro de 2009

O que diz o ADB sobre Timor Leste

Sorry for any inconvenience... mas vai em inglês e tudo (vd pg 112 do ADO Update):

"Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste

The preferred measure of this economy, i.e. excluding petroleum production and the operations of the United Nations, was revised up for 2008 from the preliminary estimate of 10.0% to 13.0%. Development is based on high levels of public spending that is funded mainly by the Government’s revenue from hydrocarbons production. In view of efforts to trim public spending to more sustainable levels since the easing of world oil prices, economic growth is expected to slow to about 8% in 2009, lowered from the ADO 2009 forecast.
This still-robust rate is supported by increases in public sector salaries and gradual improvements in agriculture, which accounts for about 85% of employment. Economic growth is expected to edge higher to about 9% in 2010.
Inflation has subsided at a much faster rate than forecast in ADO 2009, driven by sharp falls in international prices of food and fuel. (The use of the US dollar as the national currency has helped in this regard.) The consumer price index fell by 1.3% on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter of 2009. For the full year, inflation is now forecast at 1.5%, revised down sharply from ADO 2009, and for 2010 the forecast is lowered to 3.1%.
Withdrawals this year from the Petroleum Fund, which holds national savings exceeding $4 billion from offshore hydrocarbons production, are budgeted to exceed estimated sustainable income. The key challenge is to use these withdrawals for broad-based development to reduce poverty, while ensuring that adequate savings are retained to fund the budget for future generations. Agriculture will likely be the main source of income for most of the population for some decades and further investment is required in this sector. However, current Government intervention in the market as a buyer and seller of agricultural produce may not be as productive as conventional policies to invest in agricultural extension services, improvements to access to markets, and human capital."

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