quarta-feira, 23 de julho de 2008

"Asia Economic Monitor", Julho 2008

O Banco Asiático de Desenvolvimento acaba de publicar o número de Julho do seu Asia Economic Monitor.
Devido ao interesse que alguns dos pontos salientados nessa publicação podem ter para o estudo da evolução futura da economia de Timor Leste atrevemo-nos a transcrever parte desses pontos. Vai em inglês e tudo por ser mais rápido... :-)

"Asia Economic Monitor 2008, July 2008 (vd http://aric.adb.org )

Recent Economic Performance
• Stronger-than-expected economic growth in emerging East Asia during the first 3 months of 2008 gave way to moderation in the second quarter, as slower growth in industrialized economies began to impact the region.
• Even as economic growth showed signs of moderation in the second quarter, headline inflation rose sharply as global oil and food prices surged, with a rise in core inflation indicating that second-round effects may be underway.
• Across much of the region, monetary policies are increasingly focusing on controlling inflation.
Outlook, Risks, and Policy Issues
• The external economic outlook for emerging East Asia has dimmed amid prospects for slower growth, tighter credit conditions, and higher inflation.
• Emerging East Asia is expected to see slowing yet solid growth as it weathers the current global economic headwinds relatively well—GDP growth is projected to reach 7.6% in both 2008 and 2009.
• The region’s solid growth outlook is vulnerable to several potentially harmful risks—including higher-than-expected inflation, a sharper or protracted economic slowdown in the US, and another bout of global financial turbulence.
• Heightened inflationary pressures will require more decisive tightening of monetary policies across much of emerging East Asia, and in economies with healthy fiscal positions, carefully-designed fiscal support—though avoiding artificial price-fixing and subsidies—can cushion the most vulnerable from the immediate effects of food and energy price increases.
• Other policy priorities could include (i) the required structural economic adjustment to accommodate the negative terms-of-trade shock; (ii) deeper and more comprehensive structural reforms to upgrade the investment climate in several emerging East Asian economies; (iii) nurturing more efficient and liquid financial markets to help channel capital into productive use and enable more effective management of capital flows and foreign exchange reserves; and (iv) measures to promote energy efficiency and conservation.
Dealing with Inflation: Policy Options for Emerging East Asia
• The current inflationary environment poses a dilemma for policymakers as controlling inflation depresses economic activity—forcing authorities to weigh the benefits of stabilizing prices against the costs of slowing growth.
• With monetary policy in many emerging East Asian economies behind the curve—there are growing signs that inflation expectations are beginning to drift, with second-round price effects beginning to burrow through the region’s economies.
• With the balance of risks tilted toward inflation, many of the region’s central banks need to be more decisive in tightening monetary conditions.
• Along with monetary tightening, selective use of fiscal measures can relieve the regressive tax effect of rising food and energy prices on the poor without necessarily undermining price stability.
• Enhancing the credibility of monetary authorities is an important challenge for many of the region’s central banks. "

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