segunda-feira, 11 de maio de 2009

Perspectivas de evolução da economia asiática: a visão do FMI

Esta vai mesmo em inglês... Sorry!...
Do que fica abaixo gostaríamos de salientar pelo menos dois pontos:
1) o do reconhecimento de que o crescimento económico da Ásia tem estado (demasiado?) dependente das exportações, particularmente para os países de economias mais avançadas; e de que
2) a actual crise veio salientar a vantagem de o desenvolvimento da região ser "recentrado", dando mais importância ao consumo interno da região (e de cada país em particular).

Além disso realce-se do quadro apresentado o (apesar de tudo) razoável desempenho da economia da Indonésia, que consegue manter taxas de crescimento positivas num mar de taxas "pífias" quando não mesmo negativas...

"IMF Sees Long Path to Asian Recovery
Press Release No. 09/149
May 6, 2009

The global crisis has hit Asia hard, and it may take some time before the region’s economies recover, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today in its latest report on Asia and the Pacific. The report cautions that forceful countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies will consequently need to be sustained through 2010. It also warns that Asia will eventually need to rebalance its growth from exports to domestic demand, since consumption in advanced countries may remain weak for years to come.

“The spillovers from the global crisis have impacted Asia with unexpected speed and force,” according to the Regional Economic Outlook (REO) for Asia and Pacific, which was released in Singapore on May 6. “The downswing has been even larger than in other regions, and sharper than at the epicenter of the global crisis.” In fact, GDP in Emerging Asia excluding China and India fell at an astonishing 15 percent annual rate (seasonally adjusted) in the fourth quarter of 2008, and a further decline most likely took place in the first quarter of this year as well.

This severe impact is explained by the exceptional nature of Asia’s integration into the global economy:

• Asia’s growth has been reliant on exports, especially of technologically sophisticated goods such as motor vehicles and IT products – precisely those products for which worldwide demand has collapsed.

• Asia’s growth has also been fueled by international financial flows, including corporate borrowing on international markets and foreign investments in local securities. These trends are working in reverse, now that financial systems in advanced countries are deleveraging.

These external shocks and stresses will make it difficult for the region to recover. As long as exports remain depressed, private investment will remain low. Meanwhile, consumption will be hampered by growing unemployment as firms retrench in order to restore profitability. So, a sustained recovery will need to await an improvement in the global economy – which the IMF does not expect before the middle of 2010. Accordingly, the IMF forecasts that Asian growth will decelerate to 1.3 percent in 2009 before rebounding to 4.3 percent in 2010, still well below potential and the 5.1 percent rate recorded in 2008.

What can Asian policymakers do to support economies in these difficult circumstances? The REO recommends:

• Sustaining policy stimulus. In many cases, there is scope for reducing interest rates further, and for adopting unconventional policies—such as flooding banking sectors with liquidity or intervening to support credit flows—as done in advanced countries. In addition, the fiscal stimulus provided in 2009 could be sustained into next year, while being placed in a medium-term framework that ensures a gradual return to fiscal rigor. Finally, authorities will need to maintain foreign exchange liquidity, drawing where necessary on bilateral swap lines or the IMF’s new Flexible Credit Line, which provides qualifying countries with large upfront assistance with no policy conditions.

• Rebalancing growth. The past year has provided an ample demonstration of the dangers of relying solely on one growth engine. Moreover, the export model may not pay the same dividends as in the past, for households in advanced economies now need to save more, rather than spend. So, policy makers will need to rebalance growth toward domestic demand, for example by reforming tax and financial systems, and building strong social protection systems that will reduce the need for precautionary savings to meet health, education, and retirement expenses."

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